MERCEDES POZO BUIL
University of California Santa Cruz,Â
NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center
ABOUT ME
I am an Associate Project Scientist at the University of California Santa Cruz and I work collaboratively with the NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center. I am originally from Spain, and I came to the U.S. for graduate school. I obtained my Ph.D from the Georgia Institute of Technology in 2017. Previously, I received my M.S. in Physical Oceanography from the University of Cádiz, Spain. My research interests are in ocean modeling and large-scale circulation, specifically about subsurface ocean variability, large-scale changes in water masses and circulation, and how they affect upwelling systems.
PUBLICATIONS
2025
Muhling, B., Zwolinski, J., Kuriyama, P., Auth, T., Brodeur, R., Jiménez Rosenberg, S. ., Aceves-Medina, G., Gasti, J., Jacox, M., Pozo Buil, M., Fiechter, J., Quezada Escalona, F. and Tommasi, D. 2025. Marine Heatwaves and Climate-Driven Warming Impact Availability of Sardine Subpopulations to Northeast Pacific Fishing Ports. Fisheries Oceanography e12730. https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12730 [PDF]
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Frawley, T., Provost, M., Bellquist, L., Ben-Aderet, N., Blondin, H., Brodie, S., Pozo Buil, M., Jacox, M., Bograd, S., Hazen, E., McGonigal, H., Ramey, K. 2025. A collaborative climate vulnerability assessment of California marine fishery species. PLOS Climate. 4(2): e0000574. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000574​ [PDF]
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Liu, O.R., Kaplan, I.C., Hernvann, P.-Y., Fulton, E.A., Haltuch, M.A., Harvey, C.J., Marshall, K.N., Muhling, B., Norman, K., Pozo Buil, M., Rovellini, A. and Samhouri, J.F. 2025. Climate Change Influences via Species Distribution Shifts and Century-Scale Warming in an End-To-End California Current Ecosystem Model. Global Change Biology, 31: e70021. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70021 [PDF]
2024
Mogen, S., Lovenduski, N., Yeager, S., Capotondi, A., Jacox, M., Bograd, S., Di Lorenzo, E., Hazen, E., Pozo Buil, M., Kim, W. and Rosenbloom, N., 2024. Multi-month forecasts of marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extremes. Nature Geosciences 17, 1261–1267 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01593-0 [PDF]
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Jacox, M., Bograd, S., Fiechter, J., Pozo Buil, M., Alexander, M., Amaya, D., Cordero-Quiros, N., Ding, H., Rykaczewski, R., 2024. Linking upwelling dynamics and subsurface nutrients to projected productivity changes in the California Current System. Geophysical Research Letters. 51, e2023GL108096, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL108096 [PDF]
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Jorgensen, E., Hazen, E., Jacox, M., Pozo Buil, M., Schroeder, I., Bograd, S., 2024. Physical and Biogeochemical Phenology of Coastal Upwelling in the California Current System. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108194 [PDF]
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Samhouri, J.F., Feist, B.E., Jacox, M., Liu, O.R., Richerson, K., Steiner, E., Wallace, J., Andrews, K., Barnett, L., Beaudreau, A.H., Bellquist, L., Pozo Buil, M., Haltuch, M.A., Harley, A., Harvey, C.J., Kaplan, I.C., Norman, K., Phillips, A., Rasmuson, L.K., Ward, E.J., Whitmire, C., Selden, R.L., 2024.Stay or go? Geographic variation in risks due to climate change for fishing fleets that adapt in-place or adapt on-the-move. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000285 [PDF]
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Lezama-Ochoa, N., Brodie, S., Welch, H., Jacox, M. G., Pozo Buil, M., Fiechter, J., Cimino, M., Muhling, B., Dewar, H., Becker, E. A., Forney, K. A., Costa, D., Benson, S. R., Farchadi, N., Braun, C., Lewison, R., Bograd, S., & Hazen, E. L., (2023). Divergent responses of highly migratory species to climate change in the California Current. Diversity and Distributions, 00, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13800 [PDF]
2023
Pozo Buil, M., Fiechter, J., Jacox M., Bograd, S., Alexander, M., (2023). Evaluation of bias correction methods for dynamical downscaled future projections of the California Current Upwelling System. Earth and Space Science. 10, e2023EA003121. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003121 [PDF]
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Brodie S., Pozo Buil, M., Welch, H., Bograd, S., Hazen, E., Santora, J., Seary, R., Schroeder, I., Jacox M., (2023). Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes. Nature Communications. 14, 7701. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43188-0 [PDF]
Jacox, M., Pozo Buil, M., Brodie, S., Alexander, M., Amaya, D., Bograd, S., Edwards, C., Fiechter, J., Hazen, E., Hervieux, G., Tommasi, D., (2023). Downscaled seasonal forecasts for the California Current System: Skill assessment and prospects for living marine resource applications. PLOS Climate. PLOS Climate 2(10): e0000245. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000245 [PDF]
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Mogen, S., Lovenduski, N., Yeager, S., Keppler, L., Sharp, J., Bograd, S., Cordero-Quiros, N., Di
Lorenzo, E., Hazen, E., Jacox, M., Pozo Buil, M., (2023). Skillful predictions of multiple marine stressors in the surface and subsurface ocean. Earth’s Future. 11, e2023EF003605. doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003605 [PDF]
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Shi, H., Pozo Buil, M., Bograd, S., Garcia-Reyes, M., Jacox, M., Black, B., Sydeman, W., Rykaczewski, R., (2023). Future change of summer hypoxia in coastal California Current. Frontiers Marine Sciences. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2023.1205536 [PDF]
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Liu, O. R., Ward, E. J., Anderson, S. C., Andrews, K. S., Barnett, L. A. K., Brodie, S., Carroll, G., Fiechter, J., Haltuch, M. A., Harvey, C. J., Hazen, E. L., Hernvann, P.-Y., Jacox, M., Kaplan, I. C., Matson, S., Norman, K., Pozo Buil, M., Selden, R. L., Shelton, A., and Samhouri, J. F. (2023). Species redistribution creates unequal outcomes for multispecies fisheries under projected climate change. Science Advances, 9(33), eadg5468. doi.org/doi:10.1126/sciadv.adg5468 [PDF]
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Smith, J., Pozo Buil, M., Muhling, B., Tommasi, D., Brodie, S., Frawley, T., Fiechter, J., Koenigstein,
S., Cornell, A., Alexander, M., Bograd, S., Cordero-Quirós, N., Crowder, L., Curchitser, E., Green, S.,
Hardy, N., Haynie, A., Hazen, E., Holsman, K., Le Fol, G., Lezama-Ochoa, N., Rykaczewski, R., Stock,
C., Stohs, S., Sweeney, J., Welch, H., Jacox, M. (2023). Projecting climate change impacts from physics to fisheries: a view from three California Current fisheries. Progress in Oceanography. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.102973 [PDF]
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Bograd, S., Jacox, M., Hazen, E., Lovecchio, E., Montes, I., Pozo Buil, M., Shannon, L., Sydeman, W. J., and Rykaczewski, R. R. (2023). Climate change impacts on eastern boundary upwelling systems, Annual Reviews of Marine Science, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-032122-021945 [PDF]
2022
Cordero Quiros, N., Jacox, M., Pozo Buil, M., Bograd, S. (2022). Future changes in eddy kinetic energy in the California Current System from dynamically downscaled climate projections. Geophysical Research Letters. doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099042 [PDF].
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Koenigstein, S., Jacox, M., Pozo Buil, M., Fiechter, J., Muhling, B., Brodie, S., Kuriyama, P., Auth, T., Hazen, E., Bograd, S. (2022). Population projections of Pacific sardine driven by ocean warming and changing food availability in the California Current. Fish and Fisheries. doi/10.1093/icesjms/fsac191 [PDF]
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Karp, M. A., Brodie, S., Smith, J. A., Richerson, K., Selden, R. L., Liu, O. R., Muhling, B. A., Samhouri, J. F., Barnett, L. A. K., Hazen, E. L., Ovando, D., Fiechter, J., Jacox, M. G., and Pozo Buil, M. (2022). Projecting species distributions using fishery-dependent data. Fish and Fisheries, 00, 1– 22, doi.org/10.1111/faf.12711 [PDF]
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Pozo Buil, M., Ianiri, H., Carroll, S. L., and Trayler, R. (2022). ClimateWEST: A climate science activity. In S. Seagroves, A. Barnes, A. J. Metevier, J. Porter, & L. Hunter (Eds.), Leaders in effective and inclusive STEM: Twenty years of the Institute for Scientist & Engineer Educators (pp. 291–304). UC Santa Cruz: Institute for Scientist & Engineer Educators. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7ch3f7zz [PDF]
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Santiago, N., Gee, C., Howard, S., Macho, J., and Pozo Buil, M. (2022). Utilizing equitable and inclusive design principles to promote STEM identity of community college transfer students. In S. Seagroves, A. Barnes, A. J. Metevier, J. Porter, & L. Hunter (Eds.), Leaders in effective and inclusive STEM: Twenty years of the Institute for Scientist & Engineer Educators (pp. 291–304). UC Santa Cruz: Institute for Scientist & Engineer Educators. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2kz8h9s7 [PDF]
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Koehn, L., Nelson L., Samhouri, J. F., Norman, K., Jacox, M., Cullen, A., Fiechter, J., Pozo Buil, M., Levin, P. S. (2022). Social-ecological vulnerability of fishing communities to climate change: a U.S. West Coast case study, PLOS ONE, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0272120 [PDF]
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Jacox, M., Alexander, M., Amaya, D., Becker, E., Bograd, S., Brodie, S., Hazen, E., Pozo Buil, M., and Tommasi, D. (2022). Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves. Nature. 604, 486-490, doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04573-9 [PDF]
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Brodie, S., Smith, J. A., Muhling, B. A., Barnett, L. A. K., Carroll, G., Fiedler, P., Bograd, S. J., Hazen, E. L., Jacox, M. G., Andrews, K. S., Barnes, C. L., Crozier, L. G., Fiechter, J., Fredston, A., Haltuch, M. A., Harvey, C. J., Holmes, E., Karp, M. A., Liu, O. R., Malick, M. J., Pozo Buil, M., Kate Richerson, K., Rooper, C. N., Samhouri, J., Seary, R., Selden, R. L., Thompson, A. R., Tommasi, D., Eric J. Ward, Kaplan, I. C. (2022). Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions. Global Change Biology, 00, 116. doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16371 [PDF]
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Mogen, S., Lovenduski, N., Dallmann, A., Gregor, L., Sutton, A., Bograd, S., Cordero Quiros, N., Di Lorenzo, E., Hazen, E., Jacox, M., Pozo Buil, M., and Yeager S. (2022). Ocean biogeochemical signatures of the North Pacific Blob. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2021GL096938 [PDF]
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Smith, J. A., Pozo Buil, M., Fiechter, J., Tommasi, D., and Jacox, M. (2022). Projected novelty in the climate envelope of the California Current at multiple spatial-temporal scales. PLOS Climate, 1(4): e0000022, doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000022 [PDF]
2021
Pozo Buil, M., Jacox, M., Fiechter, J., Alexander, M., Bograd, S., Curchitser E., Edwards C., Rykaczewski, R., Stock, C. (2021). A dynamically downscaled ensemble of future projections for the California Current System. Frontiers in Marine Science, 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.612874 [PDF]
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Kearney, K.A., Bograd, S.J., Drenkard, E., Gomez, F.A., Haltuch, M., Hermann, A.J., Jacox, M.G., Kaplan, I.C., Koenigstein, S., Luo, J.Y., Masi, M., Muhling, B., Pozo Buil, M. and Woodworth-Jefcoats, P.A., (2021). Using Global-Scale Earth System Models for Regional Fisheries Applications.
Frontiers. Marine. Science. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.68524 [PDF]
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Fiechter, J., Pozo Buil, M., Jacox, M., Alexander, M., Rose, K., (2021). Projected shifts in 21st century sardine distribution and catch in the California Current. Frontiers Marine Sciences, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.685241 [PDF]
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Drenkard E., …, Pozo Buil, M., et al., (2021). Next-generation regional ocean projections for living marine resource management in a changing climate. ICES Journal of Marine Science. fsab100, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab100 [PDF]
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Brodie, S., Abrahms, B., Bograd, S.J., Carroll, G., Hazen, E.L., Muhlng, B., Pozo Buil, M., Smith, J.A, Welch, H., Jacox, M. (2021). Exploring timescales of predictability in species distributions. Ecography. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05504 [PDF]
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Smith, J., Muhling, B., Sweeney, J., Tommasi, D., Pozo Buil, M., Fiechter, J., Jacox, M. (2021). The potential impact of a shifting Pacific sardine distribution on U.S. West Coast landings. Fisheries Oceanography. https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12529 [PDF]
2020
Evans N., Schroeder I., Pozo Buil, M., Jacox M., Bograd S. (2020). Drivers of Subsurface Deoxygenation in the Southern California Current System. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, e2020GL089274, doi.org:10.1029/2020GL089274 [PDF]
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Jacox M., …, Pozo Buil, M., et al., (2020). Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of North American coastal marine ecosystems: Forecast methods, mechanisms of predictability, and priority developments, Progress in Oceanography, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102307 [PDF]
2019
Capotondi A., …, Pozo Buil, M., et al., (2019). Observational Needs Supporting Marine Ecosystems Modeling and Forecasting: Insights from U.S. Coastal Applications. Front. Mar. Sci. 6:623. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00623 [PDF]
2017
Pozo Buil, M. and Di Lorenzo, E.(2017). Decadal predictability of coastal hypoxia in the Northeast Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 4204–4213, doi:10.1002/2017GL072931 [PDF]
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Wong-Villacres, ..., Pozo Buil, M. (2017). Design Guidelines for Parent-School Technologies to Support the Ecology of Parental Engagement. 2017 ACM Interaction Design & Children conference, Conference paper, doi: 10.1145/3078072.307974 [PDF]
2015
Pozo Buil, M. and Di Lorenzo, E. (2015). Decadal changes in Gulf of Alaska upwelling source waters. Geophysical Research Letters, 42: 1488–1495. doi: 10.1002/2015GL063191 [PDF]
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Bograd, S. J., Pozo Buil, M., Di Lorenzo, E., Castro G. C., Schroeder D. I., Goericke R., Anderson C., Benitez-Nelson, C. and Whitney, F. (2015). Changes in source waters to the southern California Bight. Deep-Sea Research Part a-Oceanographic Research Papers, 117 42-52 [PDF]
MERCEDES POZO BUIL
Thanks for your interest in my research.
Get in touch with any questions or comments regarding my work and publications.
I’d love to hear from you.
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Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz &
Environmental Research Division NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center
99 Pacific St. Ste. 255A
Monterey, CA, 93940
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